As far as the above chart of MA is concerned... I do not see it as opportunistic of a short as many other issues out there. There is no real obligation for MA to move either significantly to the down-side, nor the up-side. The markets over-all momentum yet to come should allow the green circled support trendline to break. The purple support line just below that will be the tricky part, it could hold and cause some extended sideways trade while other broad market issues crumble. I do not see any advantageous play here, a stronger stock in a weak market, not much to be desired.
As far as "break-outs" or "fake-outs" with traditional market technical analysis, the odds are greatly increased of a successful breakout if the market is extended against the suspected direction of the break. If the actual rolling average (cost averaging requirement) does not support the move, it will most likely fail.
Unfortunately, I can not, and would not, share my technique of measuring uncompensated extension, but, at any time, you have a stock you want an opinion on, just let me know.
