Anyone here? WAKE UP!!!!

Just figured I'd let everyone know I am around. Any chart requests?

Since I have not posted a chart in like forever, here ya go!

Sorry man, REALLY I AM!!!

Ok, I am driving poor MichaelD to the point of insanity. Here is a small clip of our emails (over 100 probably since yesterday!) Of course, start at the bottom ;-), I have removed his email address of course. I have also switched a word or two! But no more than 2 I promise ;-)



because its DRIVING ME FREAKIN' CRAZY to watch this happen. you've
turned my world completely on its head and then flipped it again.
i've gone from "can i make money on this trade?" to "which way will i make money on this trade?"

i have to take a breath now. having the recipe but no ingredients is the subject of my next rant.


here's the thing ... i've no doubt that i CAN enter into a loosing trade. i mean, if it tried. but its getting to the point now where it would take more effort to LOOSE than to gain.


i need a beer


On May 29, 2008, at 10:08 AM, Winace wrote:

> Why are you cussing me? Because you have the recipe with no
> ingredients?
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael [mailto:XXXXXXXXXXXXX]
> Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2008 12:05 PM
> To: Winace
> Subject: Re: another test
>
> are your ears burning ...?
>
> they should be!!!
>
> i'm sitting here cussing up a blue note and damning you with every
> syllable!
>
> this is INCREDIBLY FRUSTRATING right now ... as assinine as that
> sounds. i enter ... i just enter. either it works and i take money
> back out OR it just takes a little longer!
>
> this is BS ... its total BS. would you just reach out and pinch me
> already?

Post for comments!

Hey guys (gals), just putting up a post for comments, comment at will ;-)

OK, I spilled some beans!

I have informed one person of what I am doing. He will be commenting shortly in the comments section. You know something. I know he will not say ANYTHING, for two reasons. First, he has always been honorable and trustworthy. Second, my paranoia is not ill found, the repercussion of releasing this information could have EXTREMELY ill effects on the person releasing such information. One problem though, he has no capital either! So, a man to join me in my boat ;-) Now I have company.

Thanks, but think I'll pass

Wanted to thank one of my readers for a 500K offer, unfortunately I will not hand over my trading principles for you to try before making a commitment. Everyone read my last post, it is ongoing. There is one individual who shares the secrets I have found. That individual and I have been building an ever strengthening professional relationship. He does not release details to me, nor I to him. But we DO know this: It is based upon the same principals. He drops a few more hints than I am willing to. You can visit his site here, pay attention, you may just catch something!

Click here and check this out ;-)

Food for thought

Let me give you a scenerio, this may be a multi-post scenerio, depending on how reserved I can be.

You are walking upon a boulevard in a major gambling city. You happen upon a man sitting at a corner, he goes by the name "Ace" (;-)). In his hand he holds a large gold coin. He flags you down and gets your attention. He offers you $100.00 to play a game with him, win or lose, the $100.00 is yours to keep. Simply stated, I will flip this coin, you call the flip before I toss the coin, if you are correct, I will give you $1,000.00. If you are wrong, you pay me $1,000.00. You examine the coin, it seems on the up and up. Do you flip?

Here are some things to consider.
a. This man makes a living doing this, you can tell by the expensive purple pimp type shoes!

b. He is paying you to play this game, think he has an edge?

Post your answer in the comments or email them. Let me know why you do or do not flip the coin.

Another offer.

OK, Optionxpress has me a little ticked off, other brokers require minimums to be met to open a new account. I will most likely be forced to purchase the gold membership via ProphetCharts. I feel I'm caught in a monopoly... Here is one more offer. I plan on taking Channellines to a purely subscribers only site. Sorry guys, but we are all here for the money. This is what I will offer:

1. Membership will be limited to 10 members, the standard blog layout will still exist with the addition of real time chat.

2. Up front membership will be absolutely FREE.

3. I will place trade recommendations throughout the day, we will be trading the major ETF's only.

4. By joining Channellines you will be expected to place the trades as listed on the blog. At the end of 1 week, and each week therafter, you will pay 10% of your profit (after commissions) as your membership fee.

5. Once I have established a SOLID 10 members, I will start delving into the principle behind the trading technique and why it is so successful.

6. If I do NOT make you profit during the week, you will pay me absolutely nothing except a one fingure salute!

7. A minimum account balance of 250K is recommended, 125K may cut it, the higher the account balance, the lower the risk. Anything less than 125K will most likely get shreaded.

8. The majority of trades will be closed by the closing bell. Some trades may carry over to the next trading day.

9. Be sure you have the lowest commission offered by your broker, your option volume will most likely be increased over your previous trading style.

10. You will NOT need charts to make these trades, I will post them and give the EXACT entry points and exit points for the trade.

11. I will need 10 members as soon as possible. If I accumulate them by the end of this weekend, we will start Tuesday. If not, next monday.

12. If you want to join, email me at channellines@gmail.com to sign up.

13. One more thing, of course there will be a confidentiality agreement regarding the trade practices used on Channellines!

Down with Optionsxpress!

Well needless to say, the ONLY reason I have been faithful to Optionsxpress is the love for the prophet Java charts. As of a day or two ago, Optionsxpress will be doing away with the Java Charts. My account will be closed effective as of that time. I am in search of a low commission, good filling, options broker. One that allows deeper discount with high option volume movement. My prices were as follows, if you can quote me other brokers, it will be greatly appreciated!

1-10 contracts 12.95
20 Contracts 25.00
40 contracts 50.00
80 contracts 100.00

This really sucks, charting software IS NOT all created equal, and very few are highly accurate. The search shall begin!

Friday, once again, and a long weekend ahead!

I want to offer a thank you out to Fortune8 and Z-stock. Their offer was generous and a very good act of human nature. You guys get two thumbs up in my book. I am sorry I had to refuse the offer, but as we discussed via phone, the amount just was not enough. You guys will keep on my good list ;-). This should prove valuable to you in the future. I believe the markets are down for the moment, I haven't really looked today, if so, I hope everyone is on the correct/profitable side (whichever side that is for you ;-)). When making money becomes boring, you know you have it down. When making paper profits becomes boring, well, that's just boring. Happy trading to all, I wish you a stress free and profitable excursion into the markets.

Wasting time.

Alright, bout sick of blogging, getting me nowhere fast.....
When and if anyone wants to make some real money, and have some capital, email me and I'll email you my phone number if you prefer to talk. I swear, I just don't know what people want. I'm giving away money, but people always want something for nothing. Good Luck.

An offer for YOU!

Ok, I'll throw this out there. Here we go. If you have capital and want a vacation, I'll open up my place to you for 2 weeks. The first week I'll educate you and virtual trade with you the technique. The second week, when I make you greater than 10% of your invested capitol, you let me keep the gains and loan me the initial amount of the investment capital to be paid back with interest. If I do not show you a 100% profitable way to turn 10% per week, you can kick my ass and give me nothing. There you have it.

Later: The more I think about it, I will NOT guarantee 10%, but I will guarantee you will not lose money! There is a progression traders make it goes something like this:

100% risk: 200% reward
This is entry level, dollar signs fill the heads of those unwary and dreaming big

100% risk: 100% reward
They realize maybe they are expecting too much

75% risk: 50% reward
Hey, got to conserve SOMETHING to put food on the table!

50% risk: 100% reward
Oh, STOPS! let's try it this way, a sure fire win!

25% risk: 50% reward
Let's conserve more, and set stops tighter (at this step, if not burnt out already, they either A. Get by because their skills ARE good, or B. wash out, or C. Proceed to the next step

10% risk: 30%-50% reward
Get nickel and dimed to death and wash out, or get by on mad crazy skills (I know a few of these ;-))

0% risk: 0% reward
This is for those who don't trade or ones that once attempted. But hey, you got to be in it to win it! Repeat from step 1!

Now the entities you play against use this
0-2% risk: 3%-20% reward
I found how to use these and shift them appropriately, just looking for someone to take accross that line with me. Going from the gambler to the casino owner. Where do you currently fall in the aformentioned progression of a trader?

Last 2 weeks calls

I don't know if anyone took any active positions in the securities I posted a couple weeks ago, but for the most part (with some exceptions) they have played out very nicely. I may chart a few more securities here and there, mostly by request, but honestly, your not getting your moneys worth (free even). The realization that their is a much more profitable way to trade makes me feel as if I am contributing to the loss of the masses. The funny thing is, I was willing to sell my advise to thousands at a very small price and am not willing to do that now. Sell out to a very few at a high price, maybe, only because of the position I am in (no capital). Can someone clear that up by the way? How do you spell capitol/capital in the sense that we use it? Seems as if the net is plagued just as I. I have traded, on paper yes (no choice there!), my last 17 trades profitably. The only thing left is to iron out details as far as time frames I WANT to trade and accumulate capitol/capital. So, if you want a chart, let me know. Don't inform me what direction you are on the chart or what you see, cause honestly, I can make you see what you want to see. I'll be here probably all day, comment in the comments section or feel free to email me at channellines@gmail.com.

Since I am sitting here with my thumb up my arse, let me post a few charts I did call correctly.

Watch AAPL, it can is in a position to nail ya.

BIDU

BIIB

BMC

EAT

CALM

CPB

CELG

CIEN

CBST

DRI

DECK

DAL

Here was one I switched bullish to DSX

DDS

Here is one I just like to watch DISCA

ELN

ERTS

Continue to watch this one, ELX

I loved this long call, although I did not publically state this one, ENER

HBI

FXI

I switched to bullish, after getting it wrong, on VMI around 4/25

The nature of the beast

I see various places where people are on edge. Whether it's oil, gold, RIMM, or whatever you may have. People, this is the nature of the game. Just when you think you are most wrong, you are right. When you are convinced you are right, think again. This is where the market makes anyone look like a blubbering idiot. If you find your in this situation, slow down. Just back off and re-evaluate, not just your analysis, but your trading style in general. Take what you know, not speculate, and use it to your advantage. I have not EVER had a less stressful time trading the markets. Not because of the price action, but of the newly implemented concepts I am using. There is a better way, take time away from the emotion of trading, find a way to trade the emotion, it's there. I assure you, it IS there.

Just to make EVERYONE feel better, and get some humor. Check out my largest holding, the text depicts where I went long. I own 400 shares of THIS bad boy!!!

VSPC - Click for Chart

Market Analogy

What if I told you there was a way to trade 99% successfully? Would you believe it? Most likely not, and I would not blame you. What if I told you to trade successfully you need to trade contadictory of EVERYTHING you have been taught, and trade in the face of everything that has been pounded into your head time and time again? How many times do I go against the grain in market analysis and make the correct call? Go against the grain, trade rules that fly in the face of what is commonly taught. If those that new to trade successfully, a guaranteed success, had the option to teach you, would they? Money changes people. Would they second guess their tactics? Or change their way of analysis? Of course not. There are two natural human responses to a stressful situation, fight or flight. What are you commonly taught in trading? Cut your losses, move on to opportunities that are easier prey. Are they easier? The human instinct of flight, where the markets are involved, have been reinforced time and time again. Pick up any book regarding the markets, you'll find it. Why did people write these books? Not for the money of course since they give them away for free (yea right). When the laws of probability favor you most, you are taught to abandon the ship. Think about it, sleep on it. I am considering writing my own book regarding technical Analysis and the law of probabilty regarding trading. Anyone know how to go about selling the book rights? I hope the rest of your day is profitable.

Late morning post

Morning people. Briefly looking at forward projected Fib retracements on all the indices, I see more upward room left. Not much, but some. The NASDAQ having the most to gain, the Russel the least. Good trading this AM, I should be back around noon.

Happy Monday, Back to work!

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. Mine was kind of rough, but I have the week to recover! Looking through the indices of DIA, IWM, QQQQ, and SPY. Here is what I see:

DIA

DIA seems to have formed a significant top. Now last time I used the word "significant" was the at the January low. Let's see if IWM and the rest confirm.

IWM

IWM may have just a smidge, if any, to the upside left.

QQQQ

The Q's have a smidgen of possible room to the upside also, 50.58 is a key price to watch. It closes a gap and matches the possible left shoulder peek.

SPY

SPY's reversal zone is slightly more hazey, but in any event, there does not appear to be much to the upside left there either.

The research on the trading style I've been evaluating is going well. But I would like to quote one of my readers with this fine analogy in response to my " I do not want to release anything prematurely, being somewhat informed can be more damaging than not being informed at all.":

".....in as much as it would be like knowing just enough martial arts to cause you to get into more fights and get your butt kicked all the time by those who have greater skills......"

Patience grasshoppa!

XLE

I have seen a nice chart of XLE lately. It appears to have had a bullish breakout above an ascending trendline. Kudos to the chartist. But, don't buy into it. My chart shows something a little different. The breakout is false and will not sustain. This is my opinion and my reading of the tea leaves, take it for what it is worth. Seems as most of the things I've announced lately have been somewhat true. RIMM hit a short term top last week, NYX would not follow through, don't buy DUG, and a few others. Have a good weekend and enjoy what is left of it!

Friday, at last!

I have not evaluated a medium or long term view of the indices in a while, but, I would not be caught long at todays open. This is going off my following of the Q's. Typically I would not make this type of statement unless I cross referenced it with the DIA, IWM, and SPY. Keep in mind, in whatever time frame you trade, markets do NOT move in one direction only!

Trade method

OK, let me see if I can get my idea partially explained without causing confusion. I am not releasing too many details yet. This is based on the same "proven theory" as one of our Fibonacci using trading colleuges. The chart below shows all possible medium term deflection points. The odds of the stock reacting to ONE of those trendlines is extremely great. If the stock falls to the nearest trendline and you go long, what happens if you are incorrect? Emotion sets in and either A. you panic and sweat bullets, B. cut your losses and take the hit (usually to then watch the stock turn!) C. Hope like hell the position turns in your favor and you take a larger loss. So, I am currently working in shorter time frames with this whole concept. If I trade a confirmed trendline (and I am correct more than incorrect) and am wrong, how do I correct this in a systematic approach that is proven valid? I am currently trading AGAINST the market trying to keep positions profitable! Up to this point, it has proven successful. So A. I make the trade using normal technical analysis techniques I utilize and B. A highly effective contingency plan kicks in if I am wrong. If you are correct on 50% of your trades, and can make 50% of the losing trades profitable again, you are now at 75%. As is taught, plan a trade and trade a plan. A highly effective, statistically proven back-up plan improves success. If this plan removes emotion or actually increases your profit by the market moving AGAINST you, you have eliminated a large portion of the trading psychological game.

Here is the chart mentioned above, just for demonstration purposes, no opinion on this chart!

ETR

Happy hump day!

Good morning everyone! Sorry for the lack of participation on my part here at Channellines. I have been extremely busy working out my new trade plan. I am happy to say it has far exceeded my expectations! Now, just to acquire the capitol.... hmmmm. I have a few errands to run this AM, when I return I'll give you the short and skinny on all the major ETF's and maybe a few indices themselves! Have a great morning, and may the trading gods be with you!

Some positions

BYI just took the pop this AM I was looking for, exit though if you are long.

I'll be adding throughout the day as I get the opportunity.

Yesterdays close

Yesterdays level at which the major indices closed did not give me that warm fuzzy feeling you would expect one of bearish sentiment to have on a 200 point down day. The level shows, with good probability, we may not have any follow through today. The transition period to a more bearish state could take a few days or be debunked within the next few days. DIA (Click for Chart) has to close below the lower red trendline for confirmation of continuance to the down side. IWM (Click for Chart) was a little bit closer, and actually teased at, the same breaking point. The Q's (Click for Chart), being the bullish bully of the pack, of course has a little more room to fall. When they break, they break quick. Then of course we have SPY (Click for Chart), which closed in the zone, but like IWM, yet to break the lower boundary.

So, strength in order of weakest to strongest is IWM, SPY, DIA, and the Q's. When the turn occurs the largest rewards will most likely be in reverse order. This, of course, adds to the risk of the play, shorting the strongest. Depending on your tolerance for risk, choose your opponent wisely!

I placed one paper trade yesterday, wish this one was real! 100% overnight in ENER, on a credit spread even!


DDS (Click for Chart), finally appears to have broken its range.

Same stuff, different day.

AAPL looks to be done with its current run, or at least a pullback point.

Anyone know what's up with CEPH? Good bear flag retracement, but what is with that daily candle? Was trading stopped?

DE has a good platform to launch to new highs.

ENER looks as if it will follow through with its bullish breakout.

ACN is ready to break down

ARO has what looks like a pretty reliable bullish breakout. With the upward violation of the secondary channel, a pullback may not even be in order before exploding higher. So, pullback to 28 or straight to the moon?

Just when some are giving up on their bearish AKAM position, the bear will strike.

A continuation of opportunities

Here are a few more charts to get the andrenaline pumping.

EAT is about to roll over the bear flag for the big plunge. This drop will be the re-test of a much longer time frame chart, the fall should be really juicy!

ED has a standard horizontal price line play along with an associated channel. I feel VERY confident of the bearish outcome in this one.

Watch for GLW to pull back to the highlighted area. Here is a bullish play when that time comes. I KNOW some are dying to be bullish!

Hope I mentioned EK the other day, I know I charted it and wanted to throw it out there. I would not enter now, the ship has sailed on this move, at least as far as it interests me.

Here is an descending channel into an ascending channel (EIX) which should result in a symetrical triange that breaks to the upside. Just chart is mentioned just for its characteristics, I would not enter at this point.

ERTS responded beautifully to the re-test of resistance on the underside of the broken channel. Although, there is a second channel which shows the price may climb that trendline and not allow for optimal bearish entry till August.

I love the short set-up on EDS, it says to get in quick.

OK, more to come later.

Update, Check out FRO, it's a classic. The forced break of a trading range due to an ascending channel. The breakout should be equivelant or a multiple of the precedding trading range. Watch for a touch of support in the 47.00 area before going long, this is a long term investment play due to the time frame of the chart. I seriously due not expect a pullback until late August or October. Just a chart that is interesting.

GME made a short term H&S at the top of a BULL flag channel, quick short term play, just don't keep short GME very long, it is a bull flag. Zoom in to the hourly charts to see the H&S better and define a touchback of the broken neckline.

GRMN looks like a low risk 10 point short.

Medium term (buy 2-3 months out for puts) bearish play GENZ looks great. The H&S although abnormally placed, appears legit and has a 10 point (yes I'd go 10, not the traditional 14, due to hidden support) target.

Volume and just the plain ole lack of enthusiasm and participation on the channel break of GGB tells me it will re-enter with a vengence.

Opportunities

Just a few charts of note. Once I'm done flipping through them, I'll give you an overall outlook on what I am expecting this week.

Click the ticker to see the chart!

Bearish on CAR

BKS has some room to fall.

ABX fell through some major support and hit the bear flag target objective. I see this as step two of three or more completed. Today shows a good short entry opportunity.

EAT is starting to piss me off a little (that's right, curse if you like, I've had enough of Mr. Nice Guy). Here is the weekly chart.

COG re-entry and re-test from the bottom, a bearish sign

I'll post more here in a few, just wanted to get some up before the close.

I was long on CBG, I do not like the angle of the highlighted candles. This would lead to me closing them out. (More coming, this one may be of importance to someone)

Trendline confirmation on CELG

Bear flag breakout of CEPH, good medium term short due to larger H&S retracement.

I do not see CMI slowing down, piece of shit, exit if you haven't already.

DRI looks potent here, try the straddle if you can get good Risk/Reward ratio

Still looking for DF to tank.

Just some awesome shit I've been seeing on DISCA

EGLE seems to have a legitimate breakout, if you want to hedge a short, this would be an acceptable choice.

Second chance short on EDS

Watchin for ELX to cave.

ETR getting ready to "ladder down" through the red speed lines.

GM could be dangerous here, leaning short.

Nothing but air below HBI (air-hanes, get it?)

VMI is continueing its newly found bullish nature.

That's it for now, haven't been here for the majority of the day.

Oh, the overall market outlook. Take a look at

DIA
IWM
QQQQ
SPY

This should not require much more explanation! (but, if you can't read between the lines (pun intended) were going down in my opinion!)

Delayed post

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. I was reminded this weekend that nice guys finish last, which is typically my downfall every frickin' time. I was under the impression that the posts and charts I list here were appreciated. Come to find out, I do not think this is the case. So, I will attempt a post later, but since it is in no way beneficial to me, it is not of the utmost priority right now. I have not made a live trade in months, but post for the benefit of others. Since some individuals believe I OWE them something, I'm kind of pissed off at this point, and have been all weekend. I also contemplated eliminating comments all together, but instead will just avoid reading them. If you want anything or request anything, send it by email. I really like to assist those who need help, or would like an opinion, so do not hesitate to shoot me an email. On that happy note, which is about as happy as you'll see me from this point on, I'll leave you with this chart of GOOG (click for chart) . GOOG is now trading pre-market at 599. I will not comment on this chart right now, draw some conclusions!

It has been brought to my attention that I have the "I know something you don't know attitude". Well, yup, I do. I can not possibly list every detail I see in the markets, there is just not enough time in the day. I am confident in my market analysis, borderline cocky, I see how it can be interpreted (attitude). But hey, that's me, take it or leave it. See ya in a while... maybe!

Updated directionless post!

Don't know what to post yet! Nothing has changed, just waiting...

OK, there is a card yet to be put on the table. No, I do not know what it is, but nevertheless, it is there. The only thing I see, and rationalize (in a TECHNICAL standpoint (don't get me wrong, there is no rationalization to the markets otherwise)), is the overhead gaps that NEED to be closed. So here it is, watch DIA, IWM, QQQQ, and SPY (DIA has no open gaps, but in its place an important horizontal level), These indices need to accomplish the following levels: DIA 1.7% to 132.40, IWM 1.9% to 74.20, QQQQ 3.8% (damn) to 50.36, and SPY 2.0% to 144.18. What is the time span this will take? Hmmmm..... debatable, but could possibly happen today.

The old fashion gap and crap.

Good morning everyone. I am looking for a small upward gap this AM with it to close in pretty short order. Momentum to carry the trade through the gap close level is expected on my part. Key to watch this AM is IWM's open. The open should NOT exceed 71.68. If it does, tread lightly. I'll be back with an updated post after the open.

As an afterthought, flipping through charts:

Potential long entry coming up on AG (click for chart) to ascend and break the ascending triangle.

EAT (click for chart) finally appears to be cooperating.

CPB (click for chart), mmm mmm good.

The break is heating up on CELG (Click for Chart)

Watch that line bounce on CNP (click for chart), if you are short and skidish, exit.

Watch for CMI (click for chart) to drop, or Winace wears the asshat!

DRI (click for chart) is what I like to see. A spike on volume at a resistance level.

DF (click for chart) is trying to pull me out on the carpet. Still bearish, and I'm not backing down!

Any news due on DE (click for chart)? I see a launching pad.

Thanks for the ride DAL (click for chart), I called the drop and exit, it is now being retired from my chart list.

I have high short expectations for ELN (click for chart), I am sure it won't let me down.

EP (click for chart), what can I say? I called this short when price was slightly ABOVE that trendline.

I thought HBI (click for chart) was gonna call me out. Looks like everyone stocked up on undies intra-day yesterday! All should now be well equiped for what is about to ensue...

Still looking for VMI (click for chart) to launch an upward surge... still waiting....