Weekend Discussion

A new post just to isolate weekend discussion. Possible contrarian indicator on Marketwatch? Let's throw up some topics to comment about. Stocks, strategies, stops, or whatever you would like to give and receive input on.
***Update*** Just a brief added comment. After reviewing some charts, my perspective is an upward gap for Monday. Maybe this will help some of my readers to sleep this weekend. If you were still short, shame on you greedy people!

Pushing support to the limit

The Q's and DIA have a little more room on the downside, but SPY and IWM may have set their low of the day.

Looking at the open

The open of all the indices are right on Que. If you have the charts posted in the newsletter, cross reference the open. As I type, DIA 124.46, IWM 69.42, QQQQ 43.48, SPY 135.36, VIX ? (About where the red line on the chart is would be my guess). OK. I admit, I may have overlooked one trendline. So here it is after modification.

Reasons behind my exit

I may have left money on the table, but any more gains would be made with fingers crossed. I do not rely on hope and luck. I'll be watching for re-entry.

Morning Re-cap

Yesterday I called for a pullback of our recent gains. The markets had definately lost upward momentum and set-up for what looks like a good down day. The down day is need to re-afirm support if further upward advancement is to be accomplished. I find the 4th and 5th hits off a channel are typically the most likely to hold and rebound price action. The channels we have in place need one or two more solid tests to become more concrete in the charting landscape. These levels we have seen since January will be used far into the coming future. In the chart pictured below, we find the SPY up aginst multiple layers of resistance, the floor that is in place though is made of some long term support. The break of our current ranges and patterns, from a purely technical standpoint point in the upward direction. This is my interpretation anyway. Have a profitable trading day and feel free to comment, I should be hanging out most of the day!

Delaying the inevitable

Yesterday I wrote here "The pull-back should be a day or two, I'll keep you posted when it is no longer a threat".Today, being spent setting up for a fall, while the indices unified, and possibly being assisted by the FED, finished pretty much flat. This leads me to believe, along with a some newly found technical landmarks, that a pretty significant down day is in store tomorrow. If you bought the puts or exited longs today, you should not be disappointed tomorrow.

DIA Break Point

I am expecting the green ascending trendline here on the 3 day 3 minute chart to fail. If it takes a hard bounce of this line and makes new highs for the day I would abandon the short idea for a bit.

A better opportunity

DIA and SPY have presented an even better opportunity to get out. A short here is mighty tasty looking. You should have a little time since IWM and QQQQ have to catch up before a drop ensues.

SPY Allowing Exit/Entry

Things appear to be going as planned. The indicies look as if they are allowing exit/entry opportunities for those who are nimble. If you were long, now's your chance to get out and go get some late breakfast.

Time for some pull back

Just a quick preliminary report. The markets look poised for a high percentage chance of a net down day tomorrow. It definately may be feesible to lighten up on the long trigger for a smidge. I'll get a chart or two up in the AM sometime, other priorities first. If you want to take a stab at it, I'll throw you a bone. 6 month daily chart, main downward trend, harmonics fall within the outermost channel lines. (Harmonic lines, what I call them anyway, are parallel to the channel lines although they are internal between the upper and lower channel). These are VERY common in downtrends, that is why most people state downtrends can not be guaged with trendlines or channel lines. They just aren't applying them quite right. Downtrends are steeper and fall down channels in steps, when coming back up through them, they serve as resistance. All short term (60 day and lower) signs look bullish, don't get trumped by the larger time period. The pull-back should be a day or two, I'll keep you posted when it is no longer a threat.

Resistance in the rear view?

Clean, unaltered charts I analyzed last night. Clairvoyance? Nah, just the power of technical analysis. These charts should need little explaining on what's coming next, I'll write up a full review in the mornings newsletter release along with the next levels of resistance and support.

Long Term Support QQQQ/SPY

Take a look at the first two charts, These are in the neighborhood of 5 years. The second set of charts break the same indices down to 60 day charts. Notice where the channel falls. What exactly are we in for? The last set of charts (on the previous post) show some of the indicators I will occasionally use for confirmation. Note how the bearish divergences have been resolved. Also, the MACD head and shoulders in the SPY seems to also have hit it's target area.

See current post regarding these charts

NASDAQ Bullish Signals Found!

I ran across some pretty bullish TA on the Q's I have been overlooking. Very similar to my findings on SPY over the weekend. This bull may just have more horns than I originally thought. All the info is out now in the newsletter. I will try to get some charts up in the later AM. Right now I have to catch some sleep. See you at the bell.

Market action today.

Here's a quick summary of charts and the area's I pointed out in todays newsletter. All these trendlines were in place before todays market open. If you feel left out, you may want to get in on the subscription. Have a great night, see you tomorrow!

Bulls on Parade

I am going to post some comments from the newsletter this AM. I am having a hard time getting around this AM. Excert from Channel Lines Newsletter:
Here, on DIA, late Friday's run up in price had pierced at least 3 areas of resistance (including arrow 1 and 2). A pullback to check resistance is usually done on lighter volume, a true breakout on heavier volume. The decline Friday morning was on lighter volume than I would have expected, thus I believe there was no resistance to allow it to check a new area of support (A new channel line). When this area was hit, price rebounded with a large spike in volume. It seemed very controlled and allowed to happen. Area 3 I am expecting the be the opening area on Monday, a quick drop to close the gap and rebound off trendline 1 or 2 would be expected. Trendline 3 should then succumb to buying pressure. Once the two black lines at area 4 are broken I will feel comfortable of a further rise in the indices. Area 5 is my "line in the sand" as to stating a bear market is truly on us.

Bears Beware!

I have plenty of charts to back this up, I'll post some if I get a chance, I have to get the newsletter out first. I just wanted to get word out quickly that the bulls are indeed on the charge!

Longer Term

Here. A chart to ponder over weekend discussion.

Drawing out the action

My current thoughts. Keep in mind, when support or resistance is crossed, and price then consolidates, a return accross the S/R line is likely. This triangle is a consolidation pattern just under a pretty significant resistance line. Side note: The red line in the chart is artifact, disregard it (my pointer was sitting at that level).

Shot in the Bull horn.

Either way, up close or down close, today's implecations favor the short term bear market is still in place. I am going to draw some lines in the sand and point them out in the newsletter. These lines would be my fully confirmed bear market signs. Down to this point, it has been more assumptions and speculations. With this rate of descent, next week will make or break the market. If you are concerned regarding any investment losses, you have not seen anything yet. A good comparison would be looking at the MACD, when the histograph prints a bar slightly lower than the previous bar in an uptrend. At that point, you get the bearish type feeling of a pullback. Then you have a crossing of the trigger lines. Well, the decline we have seen so far, would be equivelant of that histograph peek to the crossover trigger, then the ride gets steep. Have a great weekend. Subscription prices are about finalized. Email channellines@gmail.com for a full pricing breakdown.

Hmmmm......

Pulled out my asshat! Currently wearing it! The day has not ended yet, but the first hour surely did not favor a rally. Let's see how the rest of the day developes.

Bull Crap or Bear Crap? Someone's going to be stepping in something!

Thursday is done and gone. At times, I admit, I was slightly concerned. Reviewing charts and my posts from yesterday reinforced by temporary bullish stance. Shootin' the moon tomorrow. By noon I should be wearing my asshat or party hat. May wisdom be your trading guide tomorrow, I think we're gonna need it.

IWM Takes a double take, or was that a double check?

Note the highlighted area in the chart. I have mentioned in the past, at times a channel or pattern will be overshot to establish another significant chart landscape feature. This appears the case in the confirmation of a suspected channel (Green Channel). Lets ride it out and see if the bullish action developes.

A Bull in the Bear Den?

Transitioning of channels red to green on QQQQ, I'll be watching how this one plays out. IWM Decisively held support.

Update: The green support line could break and allow price to fall to the red line, that would not concern me all that much, I would still have a bullish outlook at the moment anyway. (Note: this is subject to change within the next couple of days!)

IWM........ Represent.

Good morning! Looks as if my late day prophecies are developing early this AM. I have out-lined a key area of support on the IWM. This line is crutial to ALL the indices, it has a large weight of representation. My newsletter covered this in more detail. This line may come under fire today, watch the reaction the market has if tested.

NASDAQ Blasts support

The Q's took out short term support at #1, area #2 took out 10 day support. A 10 minute close below 43.45 and next stop is 42.60ish. If there is a pullback on tomorrow open to the area #2 broken trendline, it may coordinate with the other indices breaking their triangles. I'll add to my bearish position on the Q's if that happens.

Re-post of charts

Todays intra-day Support and Resistance

The point of these charts is to monitor all the securities listed. When the resisting or supportive trendlines are hit simultaneously, fade the position. I keep an eye on 1,3,5,10, and 30 minute RSI (Wilder), Slow Stochastics, and MACD. I do not trade directly against a strong countermove to my position on these indicators. Correlation is key, markets always turn at logical points, when all indices are at logical points, you have increased your chances of calling the turn.